KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

26%

22%

22%

17%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 24.6¢Risks 12.32u

WN2NO 75.4¢Risks 37.68u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.68u · WN2 −37.68u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	46.1%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	1.4%	4.8%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	50.7%	13.7%	0.1%	—	21.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	19.9%	63.6%	6.9%	—	14.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	9.3%	27.7%	7.8%	—	7.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	4.3%	42.1%	2.7%	—	12.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	15.2%	37.7%	5.1%	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	2.2%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	18.4%	10.9%	4.7%	—	5.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	8.1%	14.5%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	9.8%	11.9%	2.8%	—	5.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	7.7%	14.8%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	5.9%	7.2%	2.0%	—	5.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	4.2%	20.4%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	2.8%	4.7%	0.8%	0.0%	2.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	3.3%	10.6%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.8%	9.9%	0.9%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.5%	14.8%	0.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%	0.6%	0.0%	2.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.5%	11.4%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.1%	3.0%	0.5%	1.3%	1.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	1.9%	3.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	65%	88.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	87.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	32%	83.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	84.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	82.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	81.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	82.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 87°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗