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KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
9%
AIFS
7%
HRES
4%
WN2
2%
ICON
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 5.3¢Risks 1.34u
VS
ICONNO 94.7¢Risks 23.66u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.66u · ICON −23.66u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 36.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 55.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 49.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-12 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0010.8%————9.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0013.7%————10.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:009.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:003.6%————11.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0038.5%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:003.9%————8.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:006.8%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0016.9%————10.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0024.8%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:004.3%————11.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:002.1%————16.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:004.2%————24.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:004.9%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:002.2%————22.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0014.3%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0025.2%————20.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0018.1%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:008.1%————18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:006.0%—5.5%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:008.3%————20.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.4%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:008.3%—1.8%——22.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:005.6%—28.7%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.8%—33.6%——15.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:006.7%—55.3%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:003.1%0.5%2.3%——15.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.8%—28.4%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:003.8%36.9%7.4%0.0%—13.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.0%—29.5%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.6%11.3%49.3%3.2%—7.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.1%—2.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:003.0%4.4%16.4%3.6%—3.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.6%—3.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:002.0%1.7%27.4%1.0%—5.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:001.4%—23.7%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:001.5%7.4%23.2%2.0%—5.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:003.4%0.7%9.9%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.8%9.0%4.7%1.7%—1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:001.1%3.2%6.6%——1.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:001.3%3.9%5.0%0.9%—2.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:001.5%2.9%6.4%——1.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:001.4%2.0%2.5%0.6%—1.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.1%1.3%9.2%——1.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.6%0.8%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.5%0.9%3.8%——0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.7%3.3%0.2%—0.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%5.4%0.0%—0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.8%3.5%0.1%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.4%0.6%0.1%0.2%0.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.3%0.8%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend10%83.0°F4.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble9%84.8°F2.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single7%82.3°F4.3°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS HRES4%80.6°F4.5°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
NWS forecast3%82.0°F3.4°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%81.4°F3.4°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON1%79.8°F4.0°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 89°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗