KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 3.9¢Risks 0.97u

ICONNO 96.1¢Risks 24.02u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.02u · ICON −24.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:58+00:00	8.8%	29.4%	11.6%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	8.8%	29.4%	11.6%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	8.8%	29.4%	11.6%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	8.8%	29.4%	11.6%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	8.8%	29.4%	11.6%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	8.8%	23.5%	5.4%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	8.8%	23.5%	5.4%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	8.8%	23.5%	5.4%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	8.3%	23.5%	5.4%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	8.3%	23.5%	5.4%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:48+00:00	8.3%	22.7%	5.4%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	8.3%	22.7%	5.4%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	8.3%	22.7%	9.3%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	8.3%	22.7%	9.3%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	8.3%	22.7%	9.3%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	8.3%	22.7%	9.3%	35.3%	12.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	11.7%	22.7%	9.3%	35.3%	56.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	11.7%	22.7%	9.3%	35.3%	56.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	11.7%	22.7%	9.3%	35.3%	56.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	11.7%	22.7%	9.3%	35.3%	56.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	11.7%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	11.7%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	11.7%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	4.4%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	4.4%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	4.4%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:35+00:00	4.4%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	4.4%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	4.4%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	4.4%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	4.4%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	56.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	2.5%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	28.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	2.5%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	28.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	2.5%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	28.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	2.5%	22.7%	9.9%	35.8%	28.5%
2026-10-14T10:33:59+00:00	2.5%	22.7%	9.9%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	2.5%	5.6%	7.2%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	2.5%	5.6%	7.2%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	2.5%	5.6%	7.2%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	4.1%	5.6%	7.2%	21.4%	28.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	4.6%	5.7%	7.5%	21.5%	28.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:35+00:00	4.6%	6.3%	7.5%	21.5%	28.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	4.6%	6.3%	7.5%	21.5%	28.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	4.6%	6.3%	7.5%	21.5%	28.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	4.6%	6.3%	4.1%	21.5%	28.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	4.6%	6.3%	4.1%	21.5%	28.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	4.6%	6.3%	4.1%	21.5%	28.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	10.0%	6.3%	4.1%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	10.0%	6.3%	4.1%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	10.0%	6.3%	4.1%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	10.0%	6.3%	4.1%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	10.0%	6.3%	4.1%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	10.0%	6.3%	5.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	10.0%	6.3%	5.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	10.0%	6.3%	5.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	9.4%	6.3%	5.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	9.4%	6.3%	5.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	9.4%	6.3%	5.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	9.4%	6.3%	5.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:01+00:00	9.4%	6.3%	5.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	9.4%	6.3%	6.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	9.4%	6.3%	6.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	9.4%	6.3%	6.7%	10.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00	6.3%	6.3%	6.7%	10.6%	6.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	6.3%	6.3%	6.7%	10.6%	6.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	6.3%	6.3%	6.7%	10.6%	6.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	6.3%	6.3%	6.7%	10.6%	6.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	6.3%	6.3%	6.7%	10.6%	6.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	6.3%	6.3%	4.4%	10.6%	6.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	6.3%	8.9%	4.4%	10.6%	6.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	6.3%	8.9%	4.4%	10.6%	6.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	5.8%	8.9%	4.4%	10.6%	6.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	5.8%	8.9%	4.4%	10.6%	6.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	5.8%	8.9%	4.4%	10.6%	6.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	5.8%	8.9%	4.4%	10.6%	6.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	5.8%	8.9%	8.7%	10.6%	6.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	5.8%	8.9%	8.7%	10.6%	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	5.8%	8.9%	8.7%	10.6%	6.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	5.8%	8.9%	8.7%	10.6%	6.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	5.6%	8.9%	8.7%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	5.6%	8.9%	8.7%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	5.6%	8.9%	8.7%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	5.6%	8.9%	8.7%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	5.6%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	5.6%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	5.6%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	11.7%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	11.7%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	11.7%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	11.7%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:50+00:00	11.7%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	11.7%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	11.7%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	11.7%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	11.7%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	19.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	6.1%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	6.1%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	6.1%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	6.1%	8.9%	4.2%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	6.1%	2.5%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	6.1%	2.5%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	6.1%	2.5%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	6.1%	2.5%	1.6%	11.6%	13.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00	4.6%	2.5%	1.6%	4.1%	13.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	4.6%	2.8%	1.6%	4.1%	13.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	4.6%	2.8%	1.6%	4.1%	13.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	4.6%	2.8%	1.6%	4.1%	13.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	4.6%	2.8%	1.6%	4.1%	13.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	4.6%	2.8%	1.6%	4.1%	13.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	4.6%	2.8%	1.6%	4.1%	13.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	6.1%	2.8%	1.6%	4.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	6.1%	2.8%	1.6%	4.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	6.1%	2.8%	1.6%	4.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	6.1%	2.8%	1.6%	4.1%	7.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	6.1%	2.8%	1.6%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	6.1%	2.8%	2.3%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	6.1%	2.8%	2.3%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	6.1%	2.8%	2.3%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	2.3%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	2.3%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	2.3%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	2.3%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	2.3%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	2.2%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	2.2%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	7.5%	2.8%	2.2%	4.8%	7.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00	6.4%	2.8%	2.2%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	6.4%	2.8%	2.2%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	6.4%	2.8%	2.2%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	6.4%	2.8%	2.2%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	6.4%	2.8%	2.2%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	6.4%	7.0%	1.5%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	6.4%	7.0%	1.5%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	6.4%	7.0%	1.5%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	6.4%	7.0%	1.5%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	6.4%	7.7%	1.5%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	6.4%	4.7%	1.5%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	6.4%	4.7%	1.5%	4.2%	1.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	6.4%	4.7%	1.5%	4.2%	1.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	7%	83.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	83.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	84.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	81.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	82.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	1%	80.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Houston · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗