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KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
6%
EPS
5%
HRES
4%
WN2
2%
ICON
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 3.9¢Risks 0.97u
VS
ICONNO 96.1¢Risks 24.02u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.02u · ICON −24.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 30.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-12 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:008.5%————7.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:001.5%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0011.0%————8.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:007.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:002.7%————9.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0033.5%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:002.9%————6.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:005.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0013.7%————7.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0020.8%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:003.2%————8.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.5%————13.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:003.1%————20.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:003.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.6%————18.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0011.4%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0020.9%————16.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0014.5%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:006.1%————15.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:004.4%—4.0%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:006.2%————16.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:006.1%—1.2%——17.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:004.0%—23.5%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.6%—27.8%——12.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:004.8%—48.7%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.1%0.3%1.5%——12.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.8%—22.9%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:002.5%30.5%5.2%0.0%—9.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.6%—23.6%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.4%8.2%42.0%2.1%—5.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.6%—1.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.9%2.9%12.2%2.3%—2.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.7%—2.2%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:001.2%1.0%21.2%0.6%—3.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.8%—17.9%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.9%4.9%17.3%1.2%—3.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:002.1%0.4%6.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.1%5.9%2.9%1.0%—1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.6%1.9%4.1%——0.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.7%2.3%3.0%0.4%—1.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.8%1.6%4.0%——1.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.7%1.1%1.4%0.3%—0.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.6%0.7%5.7%——0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.4%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.4%2.0%——0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%1.7%0.1%—0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%2.9%0.0%—0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%1.7%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.2%0.0%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—0.1%0.3%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend7%83.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single6%83.0°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%84.8°F2.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%81.8°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast3%82.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%82.2°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON1%80.8°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Houston · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗