KIAH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.2¢Risks 1.56u

WN2NO 93.8¢Risks 23.44u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.44u · WN2 −23.44u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	2.2%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	0.2%	—	22.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	19.3%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	43.0%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	34.8%	—	14.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	46.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.8%	29.4%	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	43.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	10.9%	26.3%	0.0%	6.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	9.0%	29.7%	2.3%	11.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	25.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	21.1%	24.5%	4.6%	10.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	9.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	19.5%	10.8%	2.4%	6.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	12.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	9.7%	10.1%	3.1%	8.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	1.8%	10.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	6.8%	9.7%	1.6%	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	5.5%	10.8%	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.3%	10.6%	0.6%	3.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	3.2%	9.2%	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.6%	10.7%	0.5%	2.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.8%	19.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.2%	17.6%	0.3%	2.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.2%	15.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.3%	16.2%	0.6%	2.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	1.9%	15.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	11%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	85.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	82.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	82.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Houston · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗