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KIAH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
74%
ICON
50%
HRES
46%
AIFS
44%
WN2
25%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 49.4¢Risks 49.35u
VS
WN2NO 50.6¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.65u · WN2 −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:11+00:00AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 39.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:11+00:00IFS HRES: 39.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 39.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 39.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00ICON: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T04:31:11+00:00ICON: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00ICON: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 08:1910-19 11:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:11+00:0044.8%69.9%26.0%39.7%52.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0044.8%69.9%43.6%39.7%52.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0044.8%69.9%43.6%39.7%52.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0044.8%69.9%43.6%39.7%52.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:0043.5%69.9%43.6%46.4%50.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0043.5%69.9%43.6%46.4%50.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0043.5%69.9%43.6%46.4%50.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0043.5%69.9%43.6%46.4%50.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0043.5%69.9%43.6%46.4%50.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0043.5%74.0%24.7%46.4%50.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend87%88.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%87.0°F2.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%86.0°F3.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON50%85.5°F4.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES46%85.1°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single44%84.8°F4.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 225%83.2°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗