KIAH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

50%

46%

44%

25%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.4¢Risks 49.35u

WN2NO 50.6¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.65u · WN2 −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	74.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	73.6%	—	37.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	72.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	67.0%	—	34.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	49.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	0.0%	50.0%	—	40.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	52.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	38.2%	43.0%	0.1%	40.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	42.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	59.4%	52.9%	17.5%	37.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	56.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	44.7%	43.2%	16.0%	36.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	47.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	42.1%	51.6%	12.3%	37.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	53.3%	—	34.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	40.9%	51.7%	10.4%	30.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	22.0%	53.4%	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	40.5%	55.2%	14.6%	29.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	39.3%	55.4%	—	30.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	37.3%	58.2%	15.4%	24.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	44.3%	57.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	43.2%	51.9%	14.2%	31.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	39.1%	58.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	87%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	87.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	50%	85.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	85.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	84.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗