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KIAH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
23%
WN2
23%
AIFS
23%
EPS
17%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 11.7¢Risks 11.65u
VS
ICONNO 88.3¢Risks 88.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +88.35u · ICON −88.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00IFS HRES: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:0010-15 07:5010-15 09:2110-15 10:53
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:0022.7%16.7%22.9%22.9%0.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:0022.7%16.7%22.9%22.9%0.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:0022.7%16.7%22.9%22.9%0.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:0022.7%16.7%22.9%22.9%0.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:0022.7%16.7%22.9%22.9%0.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend59%91.0°F2.2°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES23%85.8°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 223%86.5°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
AIFS Single23%86.3°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble17%87.8°F2.8°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON<1%63.9°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 91°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗