KIAH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

23%

23%

17%

<1%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 11.7¢Risks 11.65u

ICONNO 88.3¢Risks 88.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +88.35u · ICON −88.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	45.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	43.7%	—	13.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	42.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	35.4%	—	11.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	19.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	19.8%	—	13.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	21.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	11.9%	14.5%	0.0%	13.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	13.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	24.9%	19.9%	3.2%	10.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	21.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	13.8%	12.9%	2.5%	9.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	15.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	11.5%	16.9%	1.5%	9.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	17.3%	—	7.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	10.1%	15.7%	1.1%	5.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	3.3%	16.2%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	9.0%	16.7%	1.6%	5.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	8.1%	16.1%	—	5.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	7.0%	17.2%	1.5%	3.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	9.2%	15.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	8.2%	12.1%	1.1%	4.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	6.3%	15.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	85.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	86.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	86.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	87.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	63.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 91°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗