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KIAH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
78%
ICON
61%
AIFS
54%
HRES
50%
WN2
39%
Consensus
93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 58.7¢Risks 58.70u
VS
WN2NO 41.3¢Risks 41.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.30u · WN2 −41.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00AIFS Single: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 35.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 41.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00ICON: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00ICON: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00ICON: 61.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 08:1910-19 11:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:0050.0%73.8%35.8%41.8%59.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0050.0%73.8%47.1%41.8%59.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0050.0%73.8%47.1%41.8%59.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0050.0%73.8%47.1%41.8%59.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:0054.3%73.8%47.1%50.0%61.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0054.3%73.8%47.1%50.0%61.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0054.3%73.8%47.1%50.0%61.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0054.3%73.8%47.1%50.0%61.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0054.3%73.8%47.1%50.0%61.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0054.3%78.0%39.4%50.0%61.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend>99%89.0°F1.1°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble78%87.2°F2.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON61%86.9°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%86.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single54%86.0°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES50%85.5°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 239%84.5°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗