KIAH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

61%

54%

50%

39%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.7¢Risks 58.70u

WN2NO 41.3¢Risks 41.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.30u · WN2 −41.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	64.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	49.4%	—	34.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	61.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	60.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	55.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	1.8%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	49.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	41.3%	—	40.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	57.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	61.8%	38.9%	1.2%	37.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	43.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	58.0%	49.3%	26.6%	39.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	53.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	50.8%	56.8%	19.5%	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	60.0%	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	46.0%	58.7%	18.4%	30.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	63.6%	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	39.3%	60.7%	18.4%	27.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	25.3%	53.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	47.4%	53.5%	15.6%	33.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	42.9%	51.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	>99%	89.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	87.2°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	61%	86.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	86.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	85.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	84.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗