KIAH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

25%

22%

17%

16%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 27.9¢Risks 27.85u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +72.15u · EPS −72.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:36+00:00	31.9%	56.6%	29.8%	18.0%	5.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	31.9%	56.6%	29.8%	18.0%	5.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	31.9%	56.6%	29.8%	18.0%	5.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	31.9%	56.6%	29.8%	18.0%	5.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	31.9%	56.6%	29.8%	18.0%	5.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00	25.4%	32.3%	26.6%	26.2%	41.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	25.4%	32.3%	28.5%	26.2%	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	25.4%	32.3%	28.5%	26.2%	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	25.4%	32.3%	28.5%	26.2%	41.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00	22.4%	32.3%	28.5%	16.6%	39.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	22.4%	32.3%	28.5%	16.6%	39.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	22.4%	32.3%	28.5%	16.6%	39.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	22.4%	32.3%	28.5%	16.6%	39.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	22.4%	32.3%	28.5%	16.6%	39.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00	22.4%	16.2%	24.7%	16.6%	39.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	40%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	40%	85.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	84.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	83.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	81.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	85.1°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261025-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗