KIAH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

25%

22%

17%

16%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 27.9¢Risks 27.85u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +72.15u · EPS −72.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	4.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	29.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	24.7%	—	27.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	33.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	15.6%	—	18.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	19.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	0.0%	18.9%	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	18.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	11.5%	13.4%	0.1%	13.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	16.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	15.2%	15.2%	10.9%	11.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	8.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	40%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	40%	85.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	84.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	83.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	81.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	85.1°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261025-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗