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KIAH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
29%
WN2
13%
AIFS
13%
HRES
10%
EPS
4%
Consensus
11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 16.4¢Risks 16.40u
VS
EPSNO 83.6¢Risks 83.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.60u · EPS −83.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00AIFS Single: 18.8% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00IFS HRES: 11.0% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 17.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00ICON: 29.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 21:4310-19 11:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:0020.7%25.2%18.6%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:0020.7%25.2%18.6%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0020.7%25.2%18.6%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0020.7%25.2%18.6%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:0020.7%25.2%18.6%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:0020.7%15.9%14.1%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:0020.7%15.9%14.1%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:0020.7%15.9%14.1%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:0018.8%15.9%14.1%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:0018.8%15.9%14.1%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:0018.8%9.8%14.1%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:0018.8%9.8%14.1%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:0018.8%9.8%15.4%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:0018.8%9.8%15.4%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:0018.8%9.8%15.4%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:0018.8%9.8%15.4%11.0%3.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:0015.2%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:0015.2%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:0015.2%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:0015.2%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:0015.2%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:0015.2%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:0015.2%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:0015.7%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:0015.7%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:0015.7%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0015.7%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:0015.7%9.8%15.4%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0015.7%9.8%16.9%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0015.7%9.8%16.9%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0015.7%9.8%16.9%17.2%33.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:0013.0%9.8%16.9%10.2%29.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0013.0%9.8%16.9%10.2%29.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0013.0%9.8%16.9%10.2%29.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0013.0%9.8%16.9%10.2%29.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0013.0%9.8%16.9%10.2%29.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0013.0%3.5%13.3%10.2%29.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend33%88.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON29%85.6°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast28%86.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 213%84.3°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single13%83.4°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES10%81.1°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%85.1°F2.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 90°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗