KIAH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

13%

13%

10%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.4¢Risks 16.40u

EPSNO 83.6¢Risks 83.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.60u · EPS −83.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	2.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	19.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	16.1%	—	18.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	23.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	9.0%	—	11.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	11.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	0.0%	11.1%	—	8.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	10.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	6.0%	7.2%	0.0%	7.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	8.2%	8.2%	5.5%	5.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	3.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	33%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	29%	85.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	28%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	84.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	83.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	81.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	85.1°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 90°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗