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KIAH / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
13%
AIFS
9%
HRES
9%
EPS
3%
ICON
2%
Consensus
5%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 7.7¢Risks 3.85u
VS
ICONNO 92.3¢Risks 46.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.15u · ICON −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-11 12:0010-15 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSIFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%——0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.7%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:008.9%——11.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:002.3%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0017.2%——12.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:005.6%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0011.2%——14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0014.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0026.5%——10.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.4%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:002.2%——10.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.9%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0012.3%——13.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:004.7%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0018.2%——15.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0022.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0020.0%——14.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:007.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0019.6%——17.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0017.0%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0016.7%——19.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0017.0%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.8%——19.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:004.7%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0013.3%—18.1%11.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:008.0%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:005.4%—13.5%8.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:006.0%—5.6%—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:004.3%—0.2%7.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:005.0%—2.4%—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:002.5%0.0%9.0%7.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——14.6%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend26%86.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 213%83.8°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single9%81.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES9%80.7°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%84.9°F2.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON2%69.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Houston · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗