KICT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

32%

22%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.8¢Risks 16.80u

EPSNO 83.2¢Risks 83.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.20u · EPS −83.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:29+00:00	47.1%	0.0%	27.9%	8.4%	41.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	47.1%	0.0%	27.9%	8.4%	41.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	47.1%	0.0%	27.9%	8.4%	41.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	47.1%	0.0%	30.4%	8.4%	41.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	47.1%	0.0%	30.4%	8.4%	41.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	47.1%	0.0%	30.4%	8.4%	41.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	30.4%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	30.4%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	30.4%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	30.4%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	30.4%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	28.7%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	28.7%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	43.2%	0.0%	28.7%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	40.4%	0.0%	28.7%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	40.4%	0.0%	28.7%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	40.4%	0.0%	28.7%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:21+00:00	40.4%	0.0%	28.7%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	40.4%	0.0%	28.7%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	40.4%	0.0%	23.2%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	40.4%	0.0%	23.2%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	40.4%	0.0%	23.2%	11.9%	35.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:00	42.5%	0.0%	23.2%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	42.5%	0.0%	23.2%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	42.5%	0.0%	23.2%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	42.5%	0.0%	23.2%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:36+00:00	42.5%	0.0%	19.4%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	42.5%	0.0%	19.4%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	42.5%	0.0%	19.4%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:30+00:00	42.5%	0.0%	19.4%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	19.4%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	19.4%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:23+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	19.4%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	19.4%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	21.7%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	21.7%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	21.7%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	38.3%	0.0%	21.7%	4.2%	21.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	39.3%	0.0%	21.7%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	39.3%	0.0%	21.7%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	39.3%	0.0%	21.7%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	39.3%	0.0%	21.7%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	39.3%	0.0%	17.2%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	39.3%	0.0%	17.2%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	39.3%	0.0%	17.2%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	17.2%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	17.2%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	17.2%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	17.2%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:33+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	17.2%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	20.1%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	20.1%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	37.3%	0.0%	20.1%	4.0%	31.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	36.9%	0.0%	20.1%	4.0%	27.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	36.9%	0.0%	20.1%	4.0%	27.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	36.9%	0.0%	20.1%	4.0%	27.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	36.9%	0.0%	20.1%	4.0%	27.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	36.9%	0.0%	20.1%	4.0%	27.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	36.9%	0.0%	16.6%	4.0%	27.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	36.9%	0.0%	16.6%	4.0%	27.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	36.9%	0.0%	16.6%	4.0%	27.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	34.7%	0.0%	21.5%	0.7%	27.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	34.7%	0.0%	21.5%	0.7%	27.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	34.7%	0.0%	21.5%	0.7%	27.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	35.8%	0.0%	21.5%	0.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	35.8%	0.0%	21.5%	0.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	35.8%	0.0%	21.5%	0.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	35.8%	0.0%	21.5%	0.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	35.8%	0.0%	21.5%	1.0%	33.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	35.8%	0.0%	21.5%	1.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	35.8%	0.0%	21.5%	1.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	35.8%	0.0%	21.5%	1.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	32.5%	0.0%	21.5%	1.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	32.5%	0.0%	21.5%	1.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	32.5%	0.0%	21.5%	1.0%	33.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	32.5%	0.0%	21.5%	1.0%	33.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	45%	33.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2025
ICON	34%	33.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1129
AIFS Single	32%	34.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1056
WeatherNext 2	22%	35.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0462
NWS forecast	7%	37.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.0045
IFS HRES	1%	39.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	38.0°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Wichita freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗