KICT / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSLow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

32%

22%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.8¢Risks 16.80u

EPSNO 83.2¢Risks 83.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.20u · EPS −83.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	3.2%	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	3.9%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	43.0%	13.0%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	13.2%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	21.6%	1.5%	0.2%	—	2.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	23.0%	0.7%	0.7%	—	1.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	1.3%	0.3%	0.8%	—	2.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	19.6%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	8.6%	0.1%	0.7%	—	3.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	5.5%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	9.4%	0.0%	0.4%	—	5.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	14.3%	0.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	41.3%	0.0%	1.2%	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	47.0%	0.0%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	34.9%	0.0%	0.6%	—	9.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	29.8%	0.0%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	21.3%	0.0%	0.0%	72.7%	7.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	21.4%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	30.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	5.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	25.3%	0.0%	0.1%	—	5.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	26.6%	0.0%	0.1%	81.8%	4.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	37.3%	0.0%	0.0%	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	31.9%	0.0%	0.0%	79.0%	3.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	25.3%	0.0%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	38.6%	0.0%	0.0%	75.5%	1.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	36.6%	0.0%	0.1%	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	37.6%	0.0%	0.2%	66.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	45%	33.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2025
ICON	34%	33.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1129
AIFS Single	32%	34.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1056
WeatherNext 2	22%	35.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0462
NWS forecast	7%	37.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.0045
IFS HRES	1%	39.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	38.0°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Wichita freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗