KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

52%

44%

33%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 33.2¢Risks 33.20u

ICONNO 66.8¢Risks 66.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +66.80u · ICON −66.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:21+00:00	46.5%	69.7%	38.4%	30.9%	38.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	46.5%	69.7%	38.4%	30.9%	38.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	46.5%	69.7%	44.7%	30.9%	38.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	46.5%	69.7%	44.7%	30.9%	38.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	46.5%	69.7%	44.7%	30.9%	38.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:00	49.1%	69.7%	44.7%	32.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	49.1%	69.7%	44.7%	32.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	49.1%	69.7%	44.7%	32.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	49.1%	69.7%	44.7%	32.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:36+00:00	49.1%	69.7%	41.8%	32.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	49.1%	69.7%	41.8%	32.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	49.1%	68.6%	41.8%	32.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:30+00:00	49.1%	68.6%	41.8%	32.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	50.9%	68.5%	41.8%	32.7%	32.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	50.9%	68.5%	41.8%	32.7%	32.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	41.8%	33.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	58.2%	33.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	58.2%	33.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	58.2%	33.4%	8.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	52.0%	44.5%	58.2%	33.4%	8.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
WeatherNext 2	58%	66.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.3387
AIFS Single	52%	65.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2704
IFS Ensemble	44%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1980
IFS HRES	33%	63.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1116
ICON	8%	60.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0067
National Blend	6%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0035

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗