KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

52%

44%

33%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 33.2¢Risks 33.20u

ICONNO 66.8¢Risks 66.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +66.80u · ICON −66.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	78.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	5.1%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	17.6%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	37.6%	38.9%	2.4%	—	58.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	76.3%	59.4%	50.0%	—	62.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	38.0%	67.7%	62.0%	—	59.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	48.4%	3.1%	34.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	38.5%	56.6%	25.8%	—	31.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	15.7%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	23.4%	47.4%	25.5%	—	21.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	22.2%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	23.7%	55.5%	17.2%	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	23.8%	49.0%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	27.1%	53.9%	24.7%	—	17.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	25.7%	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	26.8%	51.0%	25.9%	—	17.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	20.5%	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	12.5%	48.9%	21.3%	—	17.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	7.5%	42.2%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	7.2%	46.5%	23.3%	—	16.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	12.6%	48.8%	23.4%	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	15.9%	51.2%	20.8%	11.2%	16.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	15.8%	51.3%	20.9%	—	14.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	11.3%	48.7%	18.2%	8.9%	14.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	23.2%	48.6%	20.1%	—	15.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	34.5%	58.6%	21.2%	31.8%	22.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	32.5%	61.9%	18.1%	—	12.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	29.0%	59.4%	17.1%	36.1%	17.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	51.6%	63.0%	26.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
WeatherNext 2	58%	66.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.3387
AIFS Single	52%	65.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2704
IFS Ensemble	44%	65.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1980
IFS HRES	33%	63.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1116
ICON	8%	60.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0067
National Blend	6%	62.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0035

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗