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KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
45%
AIFS
30%
ICON
24%
WN2
20%
HRES
18%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 31.6¢Risks 31.65u
VS
HRESNO 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.35u · HRES −68.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-14T15:12:30+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00AIFS Single: 28.6% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.9% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T15:12:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T15:12:30+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-14T15:12:30+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00ICON: 22.8% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00ICON: 24.1% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:0010-14 15:1210-14 21:1310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:12:30+00:0028.6%44.9%22.6%18.9%22.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:0028.6%44.9%22.6%18.9%22.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:0028.6%44.9%22.6%18.9%22.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:0028.6%44.9%19.5%18.9%22.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:0028.6%44.9%19.5%18.9%22.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:0028.6%44.9%19.5%18.9%22.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:0030.1%44.9%19.5%18.4%24.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:0030.1%44.9%19.5%18.4%24.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:0030.1%44.9%19.5%18.4%24.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:0030.1%44.9%19.5%18.4%24.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:0030.1%44.9%19.5%18.4%24.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:0030.1%44.9%20.2%18.4%24.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:0030.1%44.9%20.2%18.4%24.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:0030.1%44.9%20.2%18.4%24.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:0030.1%44.9%20.2%18.4%24.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:0030.1%44.9%20.2%18.4%24.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:0030.1%44.9%20.2%18.4%24.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast55%68.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 14:000.2970
National Blend46%67.0°F4.7°F2026-10-14 06:000.2098
IFS Ensemble45%67.1°F3.1°F2026-10-14 00:000.2016
AIFS Single30%65.1°F4.6°F2026-10-14 18:000.0906
ICON24%64.1°F4.8°F2026-10-14 12:000.0581
WeatherNext 220%64.4°F3.7°F2026-10-14 12:000.0408
IFS HRES18%63.0°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:000.0339

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗