KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

30%

24%

20%

18%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

HRESNO 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.35u · HRES −68.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	2.5%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	10.2%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	25.2%	26.3%	1.0%	—	44.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	63.6%	44.9%	35.7%	—	48.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	24.5%	53.0%	46.9%	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	33.0%	1.2%	21.2%	—	33.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	23.8%	40.1%	14.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	7.5%	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	12.2%	30.7%	13.6%	—	10.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	11.2%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	11.9%	37.3%	7.9%	—	7.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	11.8%	30.9%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	13.6%	34.8%	12.1%	—	7.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	12.4%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	12.8%	31.2%	12.3%	—	7.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	8.8%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	4.5%	28.2%	9.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.2%	22.3%	0.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.1%	25.1%	9.4%	—	6.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	4.0%	26.3%	9.2%	—	5.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	5.2%	27.6%	7.5%	3.3%	5.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	4.9%	26.9%	7.2%	—	4.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	3.0%	24.0%	5.7%	2.2%	4.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	7.6%	23.2%	6.2%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	13.0%	30.5%	6.3%	11.5%	6.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	11.2%	32.5%	4.8%	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	8.9%	29.0%	4.1%	12.5%	4.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	21.6%	30.9%	7.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2098
IFS Ensemble	45%	67.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2016
AIFS Single	30%	65.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0906
ICON	24%	64.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0581
WeatherNext 2	20%	64.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0408
IFS HRES	18%	63.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0339

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗