KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 70°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

48%

45%

42%

18%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 40.9¢Risks 40.90u

WN2NO 59.1¢Risks 59.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.10u · WN2 −59.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:20:03+00:00	13.3%	40.8%	18.1%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:22+00:00	13.3%	40.8%	18.1%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	13.3%	40.8%	18.1%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00	23.1%	40.8%	18.1%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:14+00:00	23.2%	40.8%	18.1%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:55+00:00	23.2%	42.5%	18.1%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	23.2%	42.5%	18.1%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	23.2%	42.5%	18.1%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	23.2%	42.5%	21.5%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	23.2%	42.5%	21.5%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	23.2%	42.5%	21.5%	79.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	24.8%	42.5%	21.5%	63.6%	44.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	24.8%	42.5%	21.5%	63.6%	44.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:53+00:00	24.8%	42.5%	21.5%	63.6%	44.7%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	24.8%	42.5%	21.5%	63.6%	44.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:15+00:00	24.8%	42.5%	21.5%	63.6%	44.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	24.8%	42.5%	18.2%	63.6%	44.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	24.8%	42.5%	18.2%	63.6%	44.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	24.8%	42.5%	18.2%	63.6%	44.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	47.9%	42.5%	18.2%	63.6%	44.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:30+00:00	47.9%	42.5%	18.2%	63.6%	44.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	47.9%	42.5%	18.2%	63.6%	44.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	64%	71.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.4045
National Blend	52%	70.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2735
AIFS Single	48%	69.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.2294
ICON	45%	68.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2007
IFS Ensemble	42%	68.2°F	6.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1806
WeatherNext 2	18%	65.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0331

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗