KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 70°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

48%

45%

42%

18%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 40.9¢Risks 40.90u

WN2NO 59.1¢Risks 59.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.10u · WN2 −59.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	5.4%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	15.3%	16.2%	0.4%	—	31.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	49.3%	31.0%	23.2%	—	34.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	14.2%	38.0%	32.3%	—	30.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	20.1%	0.4%	11.5%	—	20.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	12.9%	25.1%	6.9%	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.1%	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	5.4%	17.2%	6.2%	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	4.8%	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	5.0%	21.6%	3.0%	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	4.8%	16.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	5.6%	19.0%	4.9%	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	4.9%	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.9%	15.7%	4.7%	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	3.0%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.2%	13.1%	2.9%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.5%	9.2%	0.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.4%	10.5%	2.9%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.9%	10.8%	2.7%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.2%	11.2%	2.0%	0.7%	1.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.1%	10.3%	1.8%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	8.4%	1.2%	0.4%	0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.7%	7.6%	1.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	3.2%	10.8%	1.2%	2.7%	1.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	11.2%	0.8%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.6%	8.9%	0.6%	2.6%	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	9.2%	1.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	64%	71.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.4045
National Blend	52%	70.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2735
AIFS Single	48%	69.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.2294
ICON	45%	68.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2007
IFS Ensemble	42%	68.2°F	6.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1806
WeatherNext 2	18%	65.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0331

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗