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KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
12%
AIFS
11%
ICON
9%
HRES
7%
WN2
6%
Consensus
10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 9.1¢Risks 2.27u
VS
WN2NO 90.9¢Risks 22.73u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.73u · WN2 −22.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:20+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:03+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-11T10:34:03+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-12T15:27:34+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-13T03:30:03+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T02:59:57+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T10:33:45+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.0% · 2026-10-11T10:34:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.1% · 2026-10-12T15:27:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 35.6% · 2026-10-13T03:30:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T02:59:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T10:33:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T07:32:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T08:18:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.2% · 2026-10-11T10:34:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.1% · 2026-10-12T15:27:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.1% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.2% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.3% · 2026-10-13T03:30:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T02:59:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T10:33:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:20+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:03+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 74.6% · 2026-10-11T10:34:03+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-12T15:27:34+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 53.6% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00IFS HRES: 25.6% · 2026-10-13T03:30:03+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T02:59:57+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T10:33:45+00:00IFS HRES: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS HRES: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS HRES: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00IFS HRES: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS HRES: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T15:27:34+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00ICON: 33.0% · 2026-10-13T03:30:03+00:00ICON: 25.9% · 2026-10-14T02:59:57+00:00ICON: 25.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00ICON: 25.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00ICON: 25.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00ICON: 25.9% · 2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00ICON: 25.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T10:33:45+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00ICON: 8.6% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:0010-11 07:3210-13 01:5910-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T07:32:20+00:009.8%51.0%29.2%74.6%—
2026-10-11T08:18:03+00:009.8%51.0%29.2%74.6%—
2026-10-11T09:03:11+00:009.8%51.0%29.2%74.6%—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:009.8%51.0%29.2%74.6%—
2026-10-11T10:34:03+00:009.8%51.0%29.2%74.6%—
2026-10-12T15:27:34+00:0011.4%35.1%9.1%53.6%63.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:0011.4%35.6%9.1%53.6%63.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:0011.4%35.6%16.2%53.6%63.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:0011.4%35.6%16.2%53.6%63.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:0011.4%35.6%16.2%53.6%63.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:0011.4%35.6%16.2%53.6%63.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:0014.2%35.6%16.2%25.6%32.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:0014.2%35.6%16.2%25.6%32.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:0014.2%35.6%16.2%25.6%32.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:0014.2%35.6%16.2%25.6%32.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:0014.2%35.6%17.3%25.6%32.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:0014.2%35.6%17.3%25.6%32.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:0014.2%35.6%17.3%25.6%32.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:0014.2%35.6%17.3%25.6%33.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:0014.2%35.6%17.3%25.6%33.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:0014.2%35.6%17.3%25.6%33.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:03+00:0014.2%35.6%17.3%25.6%33.0%
2026-10-14T02:59:57+00:009.1%44.8%10.8%15.3%25.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:009.1%44.8%10.8%15.3%25.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:009.1%44.8%10.8%15.3%25.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:009.1%44.8%10.8%15.3%25.9%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:009.1%44.8%10.8%15.3%25.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:009.1%44.8%10.8%15.3%25.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:0014.8%44.8%10.8%15.3%8.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:0014.8%44.8%10.8%15.3%8.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:0014.8%44.8%10.8%15.3%8.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:0014.8%44.8%10.8%15.3%8.2%
2026-10-14T10:33:45+00:0014.8%44.8%10.8%6.9%8.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:0014.8%12.3%5.9%6.9%8.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:0014.8%12.3%5.9%6.9%8.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:0014.8%12.3%5.9%6.9%8.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:0011.2%12.3%5.9%6.9%8.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:0011.2%12.3%5.9%6.9%8.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast55%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 02:000.2970
National Blend25%67.0°F5.3°F2026-10-14 06:000.0645
IFS Ensemble12%66.9°F3.1°F2026-10-14 00:000.0151
AIFS Single11%64.9°F4.6°F2026-10-14 06:000.0125
ICON9%63.9°F4.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.0074
IFS HRES7%63.1°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0048
WeatherNext 26%64.7°F3.7°F2026-10-14 00:000.0035

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗