KICT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

11%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 9.1¢Risks 2.27u

WN2NO 90.9¢Risks 22.73u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.73u · WN2 −22.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	3.8%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	11.5%	12.2%	0.2%	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	42.0%	24.9%	17.9%	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	10.3%	30.9%	25.8%	—	23.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	14.9%	0.2%	8.1%	—	15.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	9.0%	18.9%	4.5%	—	6.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.9%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	3.4%	12.2%	3.9%	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.9%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	3.0%	15.4%	1.8%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.9%	11.3%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.4%	13.1%	2.9%	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.8%	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.8%	10.3%	2.6%	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.6%	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.6%	8.1%	1.5%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	5.4%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	6.1%	1.4%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	6.2%	1.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	6.3%	0.9%	0.3%	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	5.6%	0.8%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	4.3%	0.5%	0.1%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	3.7%	0.5%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.3%	5.5%	0.4%	1.1%	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	5.6%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	4.1%	0.2%	1.0%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	4.1%	0.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
National Blend	25%	67.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0645
IFS Ensemble	12%	66.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0151
AIFS Single	11%	64.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0125
ICON	9%	63.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0074
IFS HRES	7%	63.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0048
WeatherNext 2	6%	64.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0035

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗