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KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
92%
AIFS
83%
EPS
83%
HRES
80%
ICON
69%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 80.8¢Risks 80.75u
VS
ICONNO 19.2¢Risks 19.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.25u · ICON −19.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00AIFS Single: 83.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 81.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00IFS HRES: 66.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:00IFS HRES: 66.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS HRES: 66.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS HRES: 66.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 66.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS HRES: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:00ICON: 69.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00ICON: 69.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:17+00:0085.0%81.7%84.9%66.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:0085.0%81.7%93.9%66.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:0085.0%81.7%93.9%66.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0085.0%81.7%93.9%66.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:0085.0%81.7%93.9%66.1%51.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:0086.8%81.7%93.9%79.8%69.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:0086.8%81.7%93.9%79.8%69.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0086.8%81.7%93.9%79.8%69.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0086.8%81.7%93.9%79.8%69.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:0086.8%83.3%92.1%79.8%69.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:0086.8%83.3%92.1%79.8%69.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:47+00:0086.8%83.3%92.1%79.8%69.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:0086.8%83.3%92.1%79.8%69.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:0083.3%82.8%92.1%79.8%69.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 292%69.6°F2.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single83%69.3°F3.9°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble83%69.1°F3.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES80%68.6°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON69%67.3°F3.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%66.0°F3.1°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
National Blend41%65.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗