KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

83%

83%

80%

69%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.8¢Risks 80.75u

ICONNO 19.2¢Risks 19.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.25u · ICON −19.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	73.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	87.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	88.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	42.2%	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	6.8%	90.7%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	94.4%	93.3%	8.5%	—	85.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	83.0%	91.0%	52.9%	—	82.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	81.6%	9.7%	70.4%	—	78.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	71.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	62.5%	7.8%	55.6%	—	60.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	59.9%	81.0%	32.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	31.9%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	44.8%	85.9%	27.7%	—	56.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	66.6%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	70.3%	87.1%	66.1%	—	57.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	51.9%	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	49.0%	79.0%	60.6%	—	53.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	43.0%	75.9%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	45.9%	80.3%	68.8%	—	57.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	47.9%	83.7%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	58.7%	87.5%	73.6%	0.0%	59.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	57.8%	89.3%	0.0%	—	54.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	54.6%	89.0%	62.6%	62.6%	51.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	73.7%	88.6%	75.6%	—	54.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	83.4%	88.2%	73.4%	—	68.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	78.1%	87.2%	72.0%	—	59.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	76.0%	89.3%	73.9%	77.0%	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.0%	81.8%	90.8%	78.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	91.1%	93.7%	79.8%	94.9%	82.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	92.0%	89.5%	82.8%	—	79.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	89.8%	94.3%	83.9%	98.2%	87.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	98.3%	97.2%	93.7%	—	95.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	69.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0062
AIFS Single	83%	69.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0279
IFS Ensemble	83%	69.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0296
IFS HRES	80%	68.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0408
ICON	69%	67.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0936
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1901
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.3469

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗