KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

29%

28%

21%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.2¢Risks 25.25u

ICONNO 74.8¢Risks 74.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.75u · ICON −74.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:36+00:00	39.0%	32.4%	29.7%	29.6%	13.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	39.0%	32.4%	29.7%	29.6%	13.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	39.0%	32.4%	29.7%	29.6%	13.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	39.0%	32.4%	30.7%	29.6%	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	39.0%	32.4%	30.7%	29.6%	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	39.0%	32.4%	30.7%	29.6%	13.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	41.7%	32.4%	30.7%	29.6%	11.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	41.7%	32.4%	30.7%	29.6%	11.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	41.7%	32.4%	30.7%	29.6%	11.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	41.7%	32.4%	30.7%	29.6%	11.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	41.7%	32.4%	30.7%	32.7%	11.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	41.7%	32.4%	33.9%	32.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	41.7%	32.4%	33.9%	32.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	41.7%	32.4%	33.9%	32.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	44.4%	32.4%	33.9%	32.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	44.4%	32.4%	33.9%	32.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	44.4%	32.4%	33.9%	32.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	44.4%	32.4%	33.9%	32.7%	11.8%
2026-10-17T15:25:03+00:00	41.2%	29.0%	37.4%	29.6%	10.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	41.2%	29.0%	37.4%	29.6%	10.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	41.2%	29.0%	30.3%	29.6%	10.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	41.2%	29.0%	30.3%	29.6%	10.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	41.2%	29.0%	30.3%	29.6%	10.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	41.2%	29.0%	30.3%	29.6%	10.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	35.6%	29.0%	30.3%	21.0%	8.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	35.6%	29.0%	30.3%	21.0%	8.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	35.6%	29.0%	30.3%	21.0%	8.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	35.6%	29.0%	30.3%	21.0%	8.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:04+00:00	35.6%	29.0%	28.1%	21.0%	8.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	35.6%	29.0%	28.1%	21.0%	8.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	35.6%	29.0%	28.1%	21.0%	8.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	35.6%	29.0%	28.1%	21.0%	8.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	42.2%	29.0%	28.1%	21.0%	8.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	42.2%	29.0%	28.1%	21.0%	8.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	42.2%	29.0%	28.1%	21.0%	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.3114
AIFS Single	42%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1781
National Blend	32%	69.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1037
IFS Ensemble	29%	68.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0841
WeatherNext 2	28%	68.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0790
IFS HRES	21%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0441
ICON	8%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0069

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗