KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

29%

28%

21%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.2¢Risks 25.25u

ICONNO 74.8¢Risks 74.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.75u · ICON −74.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	15.6%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	1.0%	68.2%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	75.9%	73.1%	1.2%	—	56.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	51.5%	66.3%	19.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	47.7%	1.2%	33.7%	—	43.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	24.8%	0.8%	19.5%	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	21.3%	43.4%	6.6%	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	6.1%	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	10.9%	49.1%	4.5%	—	17.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	24.2%	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	26.6%	49.1%	23.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	12.7%	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	10.7%	33.9%	17.1%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	7.6%	29.1%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	8.2%	33.0%	21.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	8.3%	36.5%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	12.5%	41.3%	23.0%	0.0%	13.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	11.2%	43.3%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	9.0%	40.8%	12.7%	12.7%	7.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	19.1%	38.1%	20.8%	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	27.6%	35.4%	17.4%	—	13.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	20.0%	31.4%	15.0%	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	16.5%	33.1%	14.9%	17.3%	9.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	20.1%	33.8%	17.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	31.8%	38.6%	16.3%	42.8%	19.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	31.1%	26.0%	17.2%	—	14.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	23.8%	34.6%	16.1%	54.7%	20.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	51.6%	43.4%	29.5%	—	35.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.3114
AIFS Single	42%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1781
National Blend	32%	69.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1037
IFS Ensemble	29%	68.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0841
WeatherNext 2	28%	68.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0790
IFS HRES	21%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0441
ICON	8%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0069

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗