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KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
27%
AIFS
26%
HRES
22%
EPS
22%
WN2
17%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 21.8¢Risks 10.90u
VS
WN2NO 78.2¢Risks 39.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +39.10u · WN2 −39.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T15:34:24+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00AIFS Single: 22.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T15:34:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T15:34:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T15:34:24+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-10-15T15:34:24+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00ICON: 11.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:0010-15 15:3410-15 21:3610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T15:34:24+00:0023.6%21.5%15.4%22.4%11.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:0023.6%21.5%15.4%22.4%11.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:0023.6%21.5%16.0%22.4%11.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:0023.6%21.5%16.0%22.4%11.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:0023.6%21.5%16.0%22.4%11.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:0023.6%21.5%16.0%22.4%11.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:0022.3%21.5%16.0%22.4%26.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:0022.3%21.5%16.0%22.4%26.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:0022.3%21.5%16.0%22.4%26.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:0022.3%21.5%16.0%22.4%26.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:0022.3%21.5%16.7%22.4%26.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:0022.3%21.5%16.7%22.4%26.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:0022.3%21.5%16.7%22.4%26.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:0025.7%21.5%16.7%22.4%26.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:0025.7%21.5%16.7%22.4%26.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:0025.7%21.5%16.7%22.4%26.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:0025.7%21.5%16.7%22.4%26.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%73.0°F3.4°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%73.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending
ICON27%69.5°F4.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single26%69.5°F4.6°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
IFS HRES22%68.7°F5.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%69.9°F3.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 217%68.9°F3.7°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗