KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

26%

22%

22%

17%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 21.8¢Risks 10.90u

WN2NO 78.2¢Risks 39.10u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +39.10u · WN2 −39.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	9.0%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	0.4%	55.4%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	63.8%	60.4%	0.5%	—	42.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	37.1%	52.2%	11.3%	—	35.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	33.0%	0.4%	21.1%	—	28.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	14.0%	0.2%	10.4%	—	12.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	11.2%	27.9%	2.7%	—	7.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.4%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	4.7%	32.2%	1.7%	—	8.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	12.5%	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	13.9%	31.4%	11.5%	—	7.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	5.3%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	4.2%	18.3%	7.5%	—	5.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	2.7%	14.6%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	2.8%	17.0%	9.4%	—	5.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.8%	19.0%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	4.5%	22.1%	9.9%	0.0%	4.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.8%	23.1%	0.0%	—	3.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.7%	20.7%	4.2%	4.2%	2.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	7.0%	18.3%	7.8%	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	11.2%	15.9%	5.9%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	6.8%	12.8%	4.6%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	5.0%	13.4%	4.3%	5.3%	2.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	6.2%	13.2%	5.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	11.5%	15.4%	4.4%	18.2%	5.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	10.5%	8.0%	4.4%	—	3.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	6.6%	11.7%	3.7%	25.0%	5.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	21.6%	16.0%	8.6%	—	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.3125
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	0.2959
ICON	27%	69.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0724
AIFS Single	26%	69.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	0.0660
IFS HRES	22%	68.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0502
IFS Ensemble	22%	69.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0462
WeatherNext 2	17%	68.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	0.0279

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗