KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

18%

16%

13%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.0¢Risks 7.02u

EPSNO 86.0¢Risks 42.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.98u · EPS −42.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:57+00:00	14.7%	24.7%	21.1%	45.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:32+00:00	14.7%	24.7%	21.1%	45.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	14.7%	24.7%	21.1%	45.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	14.7%	24.7%	21.1%	45.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	14.7%	24.7%	21.1%	45.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	14.7%	24.7%	21.1%	45.0%	50.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	26.7%	24.7%	21.1%	45.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	26.7%	24.7%	21.1%	45.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	26.7%	24.7%	21.1%	45.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	26.7%	24.7%	21.1%	45.0%	46.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:45+00:00	26.7%	24.7%	21.1%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	26.7%	4.1%	14.3%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	26.7%	4.1%	14.3%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	26.7%	4.1%	14.3%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	20.3%	4.1%	14.3%	25.1%	46.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	21.3%	4.2%	14.7%	25.2%	46.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:31+00:00	21.3%	4.6%	14.7%	25.2%	46.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	21.3%	4.6%	14.7%	25.2%	46.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	21.3%	4.6%	14.7%	25.2%	46.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	21.3%	4.6%	13.7%	25.2%	46.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	21.3%	4.6%	13.7%	25.2%	46.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	21.3%	4.6%	13.7%	25.2%	46.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	17.7%	4.6%	13.7%	17.7%	23.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	17.7%	4.6%	13.7%	17.7%	23.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	17.7%	4.6%	13.7%	17.7%	23.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	17.7%	4.6%	13.7%	17.7%	23.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	17.7%	4.6%	13.7%	17.7%	23.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	17.7%	4.6%	13.3%	17.7%	23.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00	17.7%	4.6%	13.3%	17.7%	23.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	17.7%	4.6%	13.3%	17.7%	23.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	16.3%	4.6%	13.3%	17.7%	23.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	16.3%	4.6%	13.3%	17.7%	23.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	16.3%	4.6%	13.3%	17.7%	23.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	57%	78.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	24%	72.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	71.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	72.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	72.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	71.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗