KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

18%

16%

13%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.0¢Risks 7.02u

EPSNO 86.0¢Risks 42.98u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.98u · EPS −42.98u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	46.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	28.4%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	49.3%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	21.4%	16.2%	0.0%	—	19.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	21.5%	11.7%	9.0%	—	9.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	4.8%	25.1%	10.7%	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	6.9%	30.1%	2.1%	—	6.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	12.9%	25.8%	6.1%	—	6.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.7%	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	4.3%	15.6%	6.8%	—	4.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	2.6%	8.1%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	2.5%	4.6%	6.3%	—	2.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	2.1%	5.6%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.2%	7.9%	3.0%	—	3.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	3.4%	8.4%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.5%	4.9%	1.3%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.3%	4.5%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.1%	10.4%	0.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	6.7%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	8.5%	1.1%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.3%	7.0%	1.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	8.5%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	3.0%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	3.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	2.1%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.6%	3.7%	1.3%	6.3%	0.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.2%	0.7%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	57%	78.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	24%	72.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	71.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	72.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	72.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	71.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗