WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
7%
HRES
3%
WN2
2%
ICON
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 3.9¢Risks 0.97u
VS
EPSNO 96.1¢Risks 24.02u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.02u · EPS −24.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-13 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:002.3%————3.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0019.3%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.8%————7.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0022.4%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.1%————5.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.6%————6.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:001.0%————5.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:007.3%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0016.2%————12.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:004.8%————13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:003.0%————17.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:006.1%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:006.5%————22.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:004.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0012.7%————16.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:009.7%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0011.1%————19.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0016.9%—12.8%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0017.3%————17.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:001.9%—28.5%——17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:004.8%—33.3%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.2%—14.4%——11.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.4%—32.7%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%30.0%——11.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.8%—3.6%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.2%9.3%6.5%0.0%—8.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.0%—6.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:003.1%9.0%4.1%2.9%—3.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.8%—13.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.2%1.3%10.7%3.5%—1.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.9%—10.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.9%1.9%13.1%0.4%—1.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.5%—11.4%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.8%3.9%10.1%1.5%—1.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.9%0.1%4.9%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.8%0.9%4.7%1.6%—0.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.5%0.4%1.9%——0.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.5%0.4%0.9%1.3%—0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.7%0.3%1.1%——0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.5%1.6%0.4%—0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.5%1.7%——0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%0.6%——0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%1.9%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%1.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.9%0.1%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.4%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast8%75.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
AIFS Single7%73.8°F4.6°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
National Blend5%76.0°F2.7°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
IFS HRES3%71.3°F5.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%73.1°F3.7°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
ICON2%70.7°F4.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%72.3°F3.3°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗