KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

39%

34%

27%

16%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.4¢Risks 34.35u

EPSNO 65.6¢Risks 65.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +65.65u · EPS −65.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:46+00:00	22.7%	37.3%	31.5%	46.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	22.7%	15.2%	32.2%	46.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	22.7%	15.2%	32.2%	46.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	22.7%	15.2%	32.2%	46.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	50.0%	15.2%	32.2%	46.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	50.0%	15.2%	32.3%	46.9%	19.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:31+00:00	50.0%	15.9%	32.3%	46.9%	19.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	50.0%	15.9%	32.3%	46.9%	19.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	50.0%	15.9%	32.3%	46.9%	19.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	50.0%	15.9%	36.0%	46.9%	19.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	50.0%	15.9%	36.0%	46.9%	19.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	50.0%	15.9%	36.0%	46.9%	19.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	37.4%	15.9%	36.0%	26.9%	52.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	37.4%	15.9%	36.0%	26.9%	52.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	37.4%	15.9%	36.0%	26.9%	52.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	37.4%	15.9%	36.0%	26.9%	52.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	37.4%	15.9%	36.0%	26.9%	52.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	37.4%	15.9%	34.5%	26.9%	52.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00	37.4%	15.9%	34.5%	26.9%	52.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	37.4%	15.9%	34.5%	26.9%	52.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	38.8%	15.9%	34.5%	26.9%	52.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	38.8%	15.9%	34.5%	26.9%	52.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	38.8%	15.9%	34.5%	26.9%	52.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	79.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	79.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	76.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	76.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	74.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	74.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗