KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

39%

34%

27%

16%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.4¢Risks 34.35u

EPSNO 65.6¢Risks 65.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +65.65u · EPS −65.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	19.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	5.0%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	22.6%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	1.3%	18.4%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	24.6%	25.7%	0.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	14.4%	4.4%	7.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	23.9%	1.1%	16.9%	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	14.5%	24.2%	20.6%	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	11.6%	23.2%	10.4%	—	16.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	1.9%	26.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	15.1%	32.2%	13.6%	—	14.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	13.5%	35.1%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	10.6%	28.9%	10.6%	—	9.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	14.8%	30.9%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	15.9%	27.9%	15.9%	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	11.9%	35.3%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	6.4%	27.6%	11.8%	—	6.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	15.0%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	23.0%	26.4%	9.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	7.5%	20.6%	0.0%	—	5.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	11.6%	19.9%	6.5%	0.0%	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	12.6%	16.7%	3.5%	—	4.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	18.2%	16.6%	8.5%	28.7%	6.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	17.4%	6.4%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	79.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	53%	79.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	76.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	76.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	74.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	74.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 79°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗