KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

77%

69%

64%

59%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.5¢Risks 72.55u

EPSNO 27.4¢Risks 27.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.45u · EPS −27.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	72.2%	48.7%	82.7%	55.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	72.2%	48.7%	82.7%	55.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	72.2%	48.7%	82.7%	55.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	72.2%	48.7%	75.8%	55.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	72.2%	48.7%	75.8%	55.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	72.2%	48.7%	75.8%	55.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	69.2%	48.7%	75.8%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	69.2%	48.7%	75.8%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	69.2%	48.7%	75.8%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	69.2%	48.7%	75.8%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	69.2%	48.7%	75.8%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	69.2%	48.7%	73.2%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	69.2%	48.7%	73.2%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	69.2%	48.7%	73.2%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	75.8%	48.7%	73.2%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	75.8%	48.7%	73.2%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	75.8%	48.7%	73.2%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:56+00:00	75.8%	48.7%	73.2%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	75.8%	48.7%	73.2%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	75.8%	48.7%	87.1%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	75.8%	48.7%	87.1%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	75.8%	48.7%	87.1%	46.8%	66.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	77.4%	48.7%	87.1%	46.8%	69.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	77.4%	48.7%	87.1%	46.8%	69.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	77.4%	48.7%	87.1%	46.8%	69.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	77.4%	48.7%	87.1%	46.8%	69.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	77.4%	58.6%	86.5%	64.0%	69.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	77.4%	58.6%	86.5%	64.0%	69.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	77.4%	58.6%	86.5%	64.0%	69.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	77.4%	58.6%	86.5%	64.0%	69.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	80.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	79.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	78.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	78.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	77.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗