KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

77%

69%

64%

59%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 72.5¢Risks 72.55u

EPSNO 27.4¢Risks 27.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +27.45u · EPS −27.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	2.6%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	9.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	2.8%	61.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	64.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	38.2%	45.1%	1.7%	—	38.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	44.2%	64.3%	57.3%	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	18.4%	63.5%	34.4%	—	36.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	71.5%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	51.6%	63.3%	39.7%	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	81.6%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	37.7%	64.7%	48.3%	—	28.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	29.6%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	52.6%	71.6%	37.9%	—	37.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	47.3%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	53.7%	67.8%	39.1%	—	31.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	63.9%	58.5%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	62.4%	62.4%	39.4%	64.3%	46.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	66.5%	—	—	37.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	80.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	79.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	78.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	78.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	77.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗