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KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
75%
AIFS
64%
ICON
58%
HRES
48%
EPS
37%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 55.8¢Risks 55.75u
VS
EPSNO 44.2¢Risks 44.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.25u · EPS −44.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00AIFS Single: 67.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 71.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00AIFS Single: 71.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 71.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 71.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 71.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00AIFS Single: 71.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00AIFS Single: 71.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00AIFS Single: 71.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00AIFS Single: 64.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 33.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00IFS HRES: 33.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS HRES: 33.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS HRES: 33.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00IFS HRES: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS HRES: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00IFS HRES: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS HRES: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS HRES: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00ICON: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00ICON: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:0067.9%37.4%72.8%33.9%51.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:0067.9%37.4%77.5%33.9%51.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:0067.9%37.4%77.5%33.9%51.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0067.9%37.4%77.5%33.9%51.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:0071.4%37.4%77.5%47.6%58.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0071.4%37.4%77.5%47.6%58.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0071.4%37.4%77.5%47.6%58.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0071.4%37.4%77.5%47.6%58.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:0071.4%37.4%77.5%47.6%58.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:0071.4%36.6%74.9%47.6%58.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:0071.4%36.6%74.9%47.6%58.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0071.4%36.6%74.9%47.6%58.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:0064.4%36.6%74.9%47.6%58.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0064.5%36.6%74.9%47.6%58.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 275%80.0°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single64%79.2°F4.6°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON58%78.5°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%78.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES48%77.2°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend41%77.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble37%76.4°F3.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗