KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

64%

58%

48%

37%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.8¢Risks 55.75u

EPSNO 44.2¢Risks 44.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.25u · EPS −44.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	1.8%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	6.7%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	1.8%	54.7%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	31.7%	38.2%	1.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	37.1%	57.3%	50.0%	—	29.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	13.8%	56.1%	27.7%	—	29.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	64.5%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	43.6%	55.6%	32.3%	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	75.7%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	30.0%	56.6%	40.1%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	22.6%	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	43.9%	63.7%	29.9%	—	29.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	38.5%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	44.5%	59.1%	30.6%	—	23.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	54.7%	49.0%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	52.9%	52.9%	30.4%	54.9%	36.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	57.0%	—	—	28.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	75%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	79.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	78.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	77.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	76.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗