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KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
93%
AIFS
80%
EPS
78%
ICON
76%
HRES
64%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 78.6¢Risks 78.55u
VS
HRESNO 21.4¢Risks 21.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.45u · HRES −21.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:56+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 79.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 78.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:56+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 64.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:56+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 64.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 76.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:56+00:0077.9%70.3%86.3%56.2%64.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0077.9%70.3%86.3%56.2%64.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0077.9%70.3%93.7%56.2%64.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0077.9%70.3%93.7%56.2%64.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0077.9%70.3%93.7%56.2%64.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0079.7%70.3%93.7%56.2%76.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0079.7%70.3%93.7%56.2%76.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0079.7%70.3%93.7%56.2%76.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0079.7%70.3%93.7%56.2%76.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:0079.7%78.1%93.0%64.1%76.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0079.7%78.1%93.0%64.1%76.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0079.7%78.1%93.0%64.1%76.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0079.7%78.1%93.0%64.1%76.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0079.7%78.1%93.0%64.1%76.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 293%80.0°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single80%78.3°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble78%76.9°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON76%78.0°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES64%76.3°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%75.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗