KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

80%

78%

76%

64%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.6¢Risks 78.55u

HRESNO 21.4¢Risks 21.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.45u · HRES −21.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	62.8%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	1.8%	46.6%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	16.2%	75.9%	2.5%	—	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	55.8%	51.5%	36.4%	—	35.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	75.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	48.5%	71.1%	56.8%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	57.1%	69.8%	46.0%	—	42.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	46.7%	50.8%	50.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	26.0%	73.3%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	65.4%	81.0%	53.5%	71.6%	50.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	—	80.4%	—	—	48.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	78.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	76.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	78.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	76.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 75°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗