KICT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

65%

57%

57%

50%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 60.9¢Risks 60.85u

EPSNO 39.1¢Risks 39.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +39.15u · EPS −39.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00	66.2%	46.7%	68.1%	48.1%	20.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	66.2%	46.7%	68.1%	48.1%	20.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:00	66.2%	46.7%	68.1%	48.1%	20.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	66.2%	46.7%	68.1%	48.1%	20.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	47.9%	46.7%	68.1%	48.1%	20.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	47.9%	46.7%	68.1%	48.1%	20.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	47.9%	45.3%	68.1%	48.1%	20.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	47.9%	45.3%	68.1%	48.1%	20.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	47.9%	45.3%	71.5%	48.1%	20.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00	47.9%	45.3%	71.5%	48.1%	20.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	47.9%	45.3%	71.5%	48.1%	20.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	64.9%	45.3%	71.5%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	64.9%	45.3%	71.5%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	64.9%	45.3%	71.5%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	64.9%	45.3%	71.5%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	64.9%	45.3%	71.5%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	64.9%	45.3%	60.0%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	64.9%	45.3%	60.0%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	64.9%	45.3%	60.0%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	69.3%	45.3%	60.0%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	69.3%	45.3%	60.0%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	69.3%	45.3%	60.0%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	69.3%	45.3%	60.0%	39.0%	47.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	71.7%	50.0%	68.9%	41.6%	40.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	71.7%	50.0%	68.9%	41.6%	40.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	71.7%	50.0%	68.9%	41.6%	40.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	71.7%	50.0%	43.2%	41.6%	40.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	71.7%	50.0%	43.2%	41.6%	40.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	71.7%	50.0%	43.2%	41.6%	40.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	43.2%	56.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	43.2%	56.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	43.2%	56.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	43.2%	56.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	43.2%	56.6%	71.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	56.8%	56.6%	71.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	56.8%	56.6%	71.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	69.8%	50.0%	56.8%	56.6%	71.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	65.1%	50.0%	56.8%	56.6%	71.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	65.1%	50.0%	56.8%	56.6%	71.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	65.1%	50.0%	56.8%	56.6%	71.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	78.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	76.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	75.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	75.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	74.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	74.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗