KICT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

65%

57%

57%

50%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 60.9¢Risks 60.85u

EPSNO 39.1¢Risks 39.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +39.15u · EPS −39.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	12.1%	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	43.5%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	1.5%	0.3%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	17.5%	55.6%	6.9%	—	30.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	16.5%	29.1%	39.9%	—	27.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	53.8%	9.7%	15.1%	—	20.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	43.6%	64.8%	42.1%	54.8%	23.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	56.5%	—	—	29.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	78.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	76.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	75.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	75.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	74.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	74.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗