KICT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

53%

32%

30%

30%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.1¢Risks 44.15u

ICONNO 55.9¢Risks 55.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.85u · ICON −55.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00	52.8%	33.6%	66.3%	36.1%	15.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	52.8%	33.6%	66.3%	36.1%	15.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	52.8%	33.6%	66.3%	36.1%	15.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	52.8%	33.6%	66.3%	36.1%	15.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	56.2%	32.4%	44.6%	27.8%	39.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	56.2%	32.4%	33.3%	27.8%	39.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	56.2%	32.4%	33.3%	27.8%	39.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	56.2%	32.4%	33.3%	27.8%	39.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00	58.8%	32.4%	33.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	58.8%	32.4%	33.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	58.8%	32.4%	33.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	58.8%	32.4%	33.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	58.8%	32.4%	33.3%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00	58.8%	31.6%	52.6%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	58.8%	31.6%	52.6%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	58.8%	31.6%	52.6%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	58.1%	31.6%	52.6%	30.3%	30.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	58.1%	31.7%	52.6%	30.3%	30.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	58%	77.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	76.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	74.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	74.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	73.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	72.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗