KICT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

53%

32%

30%

30%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.1¢Risks 44.15u

ICONNO 55.9¢Risks 55.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.85u · ICON −55.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	7.0%	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	31.2%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	0.6%	0.1%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	9.9%	41.6%	3.3%	—	19.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	9.0%	17.9%	26.6%	—	17.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	38.7%	4.6%	7.8%	—	11.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	28.8%	49.2%	27.4%	39.0%	13.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	40.3%	—	—	17.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	58%	77.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	76.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	74.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	74.5°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	73.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	30%	72.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261025-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗