KICT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

36%

34%

33%

19%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 27.7¢Risks 13.85u

EPSNO 72.3¢Risks 36.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +36.15u · EPS −36.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:31+00:00	39.0%	21.0%	52.2%	25.2%	11.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	39.0%	21.0%	52.2%	25.2%	11.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	39.0%	21.0%	52.2%	25.2%	11.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	39.0%	21.0%	52.2%	25.2%	11.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:54+00:00	39.0%	22.7%	37.7%	25.2%	11.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	39.0%	22.7%	37.7%	25.2%	11.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:00	39.0%	22.7%	37.7%	25.2%	11.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	39.0%	22.7%	37.7%	25.2%	11.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	22.7%	22.7%	37.7%	25.2%	11.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	22.7%	22.7%	37.7%	25.2%	11.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	22.7%	21.4%	37.7%	25.2%	11.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	22.7%	21.4%	37.7%	25.2%	11.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	22.7%	21.4%	41.5%	25.2%	11.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00	22.7%	21.4%	41.5%	25.2%	11.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	22.7%	21.4%	41.5%	25.2%	11.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	37.7%	21.4%	41.5%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	37.7%	21.4%	41.5%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	37.7%	21.4%	41.5%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	37.7%	21.4%	41.5%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	37.7%	21.4%	41.5%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	37.7%	21.4%	29.9%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	37.7%	21.4%	29.9%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	37.7%	21.4%	29.9%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	42.4%	21.4%	29.9%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	42.4%	21.4%	29.9%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	42.4%	21.4%	29.9%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	42.4%	21.4%	29.9%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:09+00:00	42.4%	21.4%	29.9%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	42.4%	21.4%	20.6%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	42.4%	21.4%	20.6%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	42.4%	21.4%	20.6%	18.4%	31.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00	44.1%	21.4%	20.6%	20.7%	21.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	44.1%	21.4%	20.6%	20.7%	21.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	44.1%	21.4%	20.6%	20.7%	21.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	44.1%	21.4%	20.6%	20.7%	21.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	44.1%	21.4%	20.6%	20.7%	21.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00	44.1%	16.9%	35.8%	20.7%	21.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	44.1%	16.9%	35.8%	20.7%	21.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	44.1%	16.9%	35.8%	20.7%	21.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	43.4%	16.9%	35.8%	20.7%	21.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	43.4%	17.0%	35.8%	20.6%	21.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	43.4%	16.4%	35.8%	20.6%	21.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	43.4%	16.4%	35.8%	20.6%	21.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	43.4%	16.4%	35.8%	20.6%	21.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	43.4%	16.4%	15.2%	20.6%	21.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	43.4%	16.4%	15.2%	20.6%	21.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	43.4%	16.4%	15.2%	20.6%	21.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	41.2%	16.4%	15.2%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	41.2%	16.4%	15.2%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	41.2%	16.4%	15.2%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	41.2%	16.4%	15.2%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	41.2%	16.4%	15.2%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	41.2%	16.4%	24.7%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	41.2%	16.4%	24.7%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	41.2%	16.4%	24.7%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	36.2%	16.4%	24.7%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	36.2%	16.4%	24.7%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	36.2%	16.4%	24.7%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00	36.2%	16.4%	24.7%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	36.2%	16.4%	24.7%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	36.2%	16.4%	28.2%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	36.2%	16.4%	28.2%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	36.2%	16.4%	28.2%	33.0%	50.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	34.3%	16.4%	28.2%	33.0%	36.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	34.3%	16.4%	28.2%	33.0%	36.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	34.3%	16.4%	28.2%	33.0%	36.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	34.3%	16.4%	28.2%	33.0%	36.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	34.3%	18.9%	35.8%	32.6%	36.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	34.3%	18.9%	35.8%	32.6%	36.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	34.3%	18.9%	35.8%	32.6%	36.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	34.3%	18.9%	35.8%	32.6%	36.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	36%	76.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	76.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	75.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	75.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	71.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗