KICT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

36%

34%

33%

20%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.1¢Risks 14.05u

EPSNO 71.9¢Risks 35.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +35.95u · EPS −35.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.8%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	20.7%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	5.1%	28.6%	1.4%	—	11.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	4.4%	10.0%	16.1%	—	9.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	25.1%	1.9%	3.6%	—	5.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	16.9%	33.7%	15.9%	24.8%	6.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	25.6%	—	—	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	36%	76.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	77.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	76.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	75.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	75.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	71.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗