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KICT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
76%
EPS
55%
AIFS
43%
WN2
39%
ICON
34%
Consensus
49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 54.9¢Risks 54.95u
VS
ICONNO 45.1¢Risks 45.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.05u · ICON −45.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 63.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.3% · 2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 72.5% · 2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:00ICON: 72.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 72.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00ICON: 72.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 72.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00ICON: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 34.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:57+00:0063.0%66.3%15.9%56.8%72.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0063.0%66.3%15.9%56.8%72.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:0063.0%66.3%6.3%56.8%72.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0063.0%66.3%6.3%56.8%72.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0063.0%66.3%6.3%56.8%72.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0043.4%66.3%6.3%56.8%34.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0043.4%66.3%6.3%56.8%34.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0043.4%66.3%6.3%56.8%34.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0043.4%66.3%6.3%56.8%34.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:0043.4%55.1%39.0%75.7%34.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0043.4%55.1%39.0%75.7%34.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0043.4%55.1%39.0%75.7%34.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0043.4%55.1%39.0%75.7%34.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES76%75.1°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble55%71.3°F6.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend47%70.0°F7.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single43%69.6°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 239%69.2°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON34%67.6°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗